Production Estimates Are Key to Budgets and Schedules
CEDA Dredging Days 2019
S.H. Burgmans, G. Miller and R. Brevet
Abstract: Accurate production estimates are key in determining budgets and schedules for any dredging project. As many physical conditions can significantly affect production levels, it is essential to use the following data for simulation:
- each project stage and work methodology;
- all soil properties and conditions;
- detailed equipment configurations; and
- known likely delays.
Any physical conditions overlooked in an estimate invariably lead to shortfalls in both the project’s overall budget and schedule. At best, such projects typically result in minimal profits, and at worst in losses, claims, disputes, court cases or even insolvency.
As no contract can provide complete protection from a Contractor underperforming, a robust production estimate is key to the success of any dredging project. To ensure a Contractor’s production estimate is robust, Clients should conduct their own production estimates, with or without a consultant’s help, as early as possible, preferably in the tender evaluation phase. To this end, Clients need to acquire enough information, right from the conceptual phase, which will allow them to consider the above bulleted points. The level of detail increases from conceptual to awarding phase and with that the accuracy of budget and schedule increases.
This paper aims to assist Clients to recognise optimistic or unrealistic budgets and schedules, providing information on this subject at a higher level of definition than may have been provided previously. The paper will present production estimate issues to help demonstrate how physical and operational conditions can easily be overlooked and the paper will discuss solution that will avoid such oversights. Furthermore, the paper will provide details of a systematic high-level approach that makes it possible for any user to gather enough information to accurately estimate their own production levels.
The issues with production estimates that will be discussed include:
- Discharge production of coarse particles and clay balls
- Cutting production of hard or ductile rock
- Jetting production in dense fine sand or clay
- Underperformance of equipment during execution
Keywords: Production, estimate, schedule, budget, jetting, cutting