Predictive simulation of maritime emissions: data-driven decarbonisation for aggregate dredging operations
Type:
Presented during:
CEDA Dredging Days 2026
Authors:
P. Lawrence, S. Barcroft and C. Legge
Abstract
The Crown Estate, custodian of much of the UK's seabed, has committed to aligning with the Paris Agreement. To support with addressing its scope 3 emissions, in collaboration with Haskoning, The Crown Estate has developed a novel simulation-based Dredging Emissions Tool to quantify and model greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions (NOx, SOx, PM) from the marine aggregates sector. This data-driven simulation estimates both current and future emissions at a fleet level, modelling the movement and operations of over 30 dredging vessels which operate across a network of wharves and extraction locations over a 25-year time horizon. The tool enables the user to see which parts of the dredging cycle create more emissions and make better planning decisions by predicting scenarios of future emissions levels, as the fleet evolves and dredging activity levels change over time The emission tool includes options trialing for future mitigation strategies, including the use of alternative fuels, implementation of shore power, and various operational strategies to drive decarbonisation and reduction in emissions of other air pollutants. This work is important as a replicable approach for data-driven decision-support tools for ports and other maritime industries to reduce emissions and enhance the delivery of environmental and social value. Simulation has traditionally been used to assess business questions related to productivity and profitability, but as decarbonisation becomes central to business planning for ports, terminals, and marine operations, its applications are expanding. Our presentation will provide the conference attendees with an understanding of the predictive simulation tool and how simulation can support decarbonisation of our industry.