The cost of dredging projects: the impact of inflation, innovation and post-fossil fuels
Type:
Presented during:
CEDA Dredging Days 2026
Authors:
D.C. Roukema and B. Goncalves Castro
Abstract
Alike all products and services, prices for dredging work tend to increase over the years, as a result of inflation. Prices of certain components (like oil or steel) may temporarily go down as a result of a disbalance in supply and demand, but generally the trend is upward as a result of global economic policy. The major factors that lead to cost trend disruptions are technological innovation and policy changes. By historical comparison of the cost of dredging (2025 versus 1985) the effect of inflation is made visible. The gain of productivity increase due to technological developments is shown, as well as shifts in the relative importance of cost components (like newbuilt costs, fuel, and wages). Aside general statistics with timeseries for oil prices, for wages, and for inflation, the newbuilt costs and indexation as advised by VG Bouw and CIRIA figures from 1977 to 2025 are considered. Project-related variables that influence cost (such as soil type and sailing distance) are eliminated by considering an example project (in this case beach nourishment by a TSHD), with assumed similar contractual and commercial conditions. Both the unit rate (in EUR/m3) as well as the energy efficiency (in kWh/m3) are evaluated. The historical cost trend is about to be disrupted. In the years/decades ahead, the required shift from using fossil fuels to sustainable energy carriers (Zero or Near Zero Fuels ""ZNZ"") will affect prices. For fossil fuels significant taxation for GHG emissions will probably apply, whereas prices of ZNZ-fuels are expected to go down as a result of production upscaling and maturing of markets. Future price scenarios for fossil and ZNZ-fuels are used to estimate dredging costs, highlighting the relative cost of adopting ZNZ-fuels - that is, the premium required to achieve climate-neutral dredging operations.